Next Up – NC State

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DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 28: Patrick Ngongba II #21 of the Duke Blue Devils gets a defensive rebound against Devin Tillis #11 and Ugonna Onyenso #33 of the Virginia Cavaliers in the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 28, 2026 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Date 3/2 || Time 7:00 || Venue Lenovo Center || Video ESPN

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Hellooooo, March!

Duke only has two regular season games left: Monday’s trip to Raleigh and Saturday’s home finale vs. UNC.

There’s an interesting coincidence floating around now if you haven’t seen or heard about it. According to Joe Ovies and Joe Giglio, Triangle sports dudes, in 1991, 2010, and 2015, Duke won the national championship…in Indianapolis.

And in each of those years, before winning championships, Duke lost to NC State…in Raleigh.

Ovies and Giglio are therefore counseling Duke that it might be wise to lose on Monday. When we channel our Inner K, though, he just has one thing to say: nuts!

Okay, that’s not the word our Inner K said, but we can’t print that word here, so nuts it is.

We’re pretty sure Coach K would say something like, well, Joes, we want to win every game and thinking about losing puts you in a losing mindset. We’re going to do our best to win in Raleigh and then the national championship too. And don’t forget that Duke can clinch the regular season ACC Championship in Raleigh.

So, DBR…could State win Monday night?

Well, yes. Yes, they could, and here’s why.

First, State is a talented team. Are they erratic? Yes. Are they capable of a big night? Oh heck, yes, they are. They are also capable of big lows.

They had a big low against Louisville, an inexplicable 118-77 drubbing. For our fellow mathematically challenged basketball fans, that’s a 41-point loss and an incredible career highlight for Mikel Brown, who racked up 45 points.

They lost the next game to Miami, 77-76, which saw a bizarre late collapse that allowed Miami to score the last 8 points in the last 1:07.

Then after those two bizarro outcomes, State turns up and beats the brakes off of UNC, 82-58.

Then they inverted the pattern and got blown out by Virginia, 90-61, before losing to Notre Dame in overtime, 96-90.

Could somebody find Ovies and Giglio and mention this to them?

Duke of course just played those two teams, giving Notre Dame a beating that was so bad (100-56) that you have to go back to the 19th century to find a worse home loss.

So anyway, there’s another pattern: take two brutal losses and then give a neighborhood team a terrible beating.

And in fairness, Duke has periodically laid an egg at NC State in recent years, most recently in 2022-23, when the Wolfpack took a 20-2 lead to start with, en route to an 84-60 win.

So back to this year’s model: the Wuffies are capable of laying an egg, but they’re also capable of brilliance.

Darrion Williams, a 6-6 senior who transferred in from Texas Tech, has had some ups and downs, but nonetheless, averages 14.3 ppg. Quadir Copeland, also a 6-6 senior, has at times been just brilliant for the Pack. He’s averaging 6.8 assists.

Ven-Allen Lubin, a 6-9/250 senior, has been really good for State too. After being used erratically by UNC last season, Lubin is getting 13.9 ppg and 7.1 rebounds. He’s been, at an absolute minimum, a solid big man. Wake Forest would love to have him.

Paul McNeil, a 6-5 sophomore, has had an up-and-down season, but he had an outrageous 47-point outing against Texas Southern and lit up Wake Forest for 28. He hit 11 threes against Texas Southern and 6 against the Deacs, by the way.

Tre Holloman, a 6-2 senior who spent three years under Tom Izzo, has been solid as well.

Matt Able, a 6-6 freshman, Jerry Deng, a 6-9 junior, Alyn Breed, a 6-3 senior, Terence Arceneaux, and Musa Sagnia, a 6-10 freshman, round out the rotation.

The criticisms of the Wolfpack are definitely there. Their defense has been hit or miss and Wade himself says that his team can be soft.

You can probably toss all that out the window.

Not only is this a neighborhood brawl, but State is in a bit of a spot. With the loss to Notre Dame, the Pack fell out of the top four in the conference, which would guarantee them a double bye in Charlotte. That’s a big deal.

And the NCAA obviously will note the loss to Notre Dame, a team that is currently 13-16/4-12 and trying to get the last spot in the ACC Tournament. The loss to Georgia Tech was also really damaging. That 1/17 loss was the last win for the Yellow Jackets, and each loss for Tech just makes State’s loss a bigger albatross.

So what would wipe all that stuff out in just two hours? Well, a win over the #1 team in the country would do nicely.

So look for the Pack to come out sharp and focused and remember what Red Auerbach said: the most dangerous animal in the world is a hungry tiger. Not a starving tiger – a hungry tiger.

We know what he meant, but our term would be despair. This time of year, ACC teams are desperately competitive, and that pushes teams to superb effort.

That’s exactly what we expect from State.

And there are some other points to keep in mind, too.

First, as brilliant as Dame Sarr has been on point, much of his success is because he’s 6-8 against smaller guards. Monday, he’ll face a 6-6 guard in Copeland who is also a senior. He’s been around the block a few times, beaten up, mugged on occasion. We’re not saying that Sarr can’t defend Copeland, but it’s not going to be as easy as some of his assignments have been.

Second, Lubin could do a solid job on either Cameron Boozer or Pat Ngongba. Wade said he’d know how to use him better than Hubert Davis did, and time has proven him right about that.

And third, State has four 6-6 guys (Williams, Copeland, Arceneaux, and Able) who are talented athletes. We watched Mike Krzyzewski take athletes like that and dominate bigger opponents on the regular. One of our favorite Duke teams of all time was the 1987 team that Coach K called a bridge team as he moved on from the legendary Class of ‘86. That team started 6-10 Danny Ferry, 6-7 John Smith, 6-5 Robert Brickey, 6-3 Quin Snyder, and 6-0 Tommy Amaker, with 6-6 Billy King and 6-5 Kevin Strickland off the bench.

Despite being relatively small, that team could absolutely shut other teams down.

Boozer presents some problems obviously, as does Ngongba, but it won’t surprise us if State comes out and uses its athletes to just attack, attack, attack.

The problem for the Wolfpack is that Duke’s defense has hit an extraordinary level. Since beating Louisville on 1/26, no one other than UNC has scored more than 64 points and getting to 60 has been a real challenge.

Duke’s not unbeatable, obviously, but the defense has been superb and State’s going to have to find a way around that and also will have to suppress Duke’s offense, starting with Boozer, Evans, and Ngongba. But Sarr has developed into a solid three-point shooter, while Caleb Foster has quietly developed into a confident offensive presence.

Is it doable for State? Yes, it is doable. Will it be easy?

Probably not easy, but doable.

If State does manage to pull an upset, then we can all pivot back to Ovies and Giglio and assume that a national championship is inevitable.

Just kidding! But the parallel will have been set up.

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