TST Best Bets: March 25, 2026
· Yahoo Sports
As the NBA regular season heads to a close and the buzz of postseason basketball draws near, key playoff seeding battles hang in the balance.
In the Western Conference, seed No. 3 through No. 6 may come down to the final couple weeks of the season, as teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets need to stay perfect against the easier matchups remaining on their schedule to maintain the opportunity to host a first-round playoff series.
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Meanwhile, this Wednesday night slate of hoops also blesses us with a premier matchup between the two teams with the highest NBA Championship odds going into the postseason, as the Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a potential NBA Finals preview.
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First Pick: Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks — Over 245
Rundown: The current No. 4 seed in the West, the Nuggets are not peaking heading into the end of the season.
Over the last two months, Denver grades out as a league-average team, going 13-13 in their last 26 games.
But with forward Peyton Watson’s return from injury on Sunday, March 22, the Nuggets are finally fully healthy again and in prime position to string together a few wins to secure a top-4 playoff seed.
While picking the Nuggets to cover the -12 point spread is also a solid pick, this column predicts a Denver offensive explosion against Dallas tonight that makes taking the over the best play here.
Led by three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets boast the No. 1 scoring offense in the league.
Over the course of their active three-game win streak, the NBA’s assist leader in Jokic is averaging 13.3 assists per game.
The buzzsaw that is the Nuggets offense right now should be primed for a high-scoring night against a Mavericks defense that is 25th in defensive rating and 2-13 over their last 15 games.
For as good as its offense has been, the Denver defense makes the Nuggets the best team to bet the over on in the NBA this season (45-28), as they rank 20th in opponent points per game.
Second Pick: Boston Celtics +2 over the Oklahoma City Thunder
Boston Celtics guard Payton Prichard (11) celebrates hitting a 3-pointer before the half at crypto.com Arena.Eric Lambkins II
Boston Celtics guard Payton Prichard (11) celebrates hitting a 3-pointer before the half at crypto.com Arena.
Rundown: In addition to being a potential NBA Finals matchup, an interesting storyline to tonight’s duel between the West’s No. 1 seed and the No. 2 seed in the East is that both teams are in the process of getting their returning stars back to form.
Since returning from his ruptured Achilles injury on March 6, superstar forward Jayson Tatum has averaged a solid 19 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, but has struggled to score efficiently, shooting 38% from the floor through eight games.
However, while still working Tatum back in the lineup, Boston has still fared well, going 6-2 with wins over playoff teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns.
Meanwhile, Wednesday’s matchup marks the second game back for OKC’s returning forward Jalen Williams, who’s played in just 27 games this season.
Williams’ first season after his 2025 All-Star year has been marred by injury, and over a large sample size, the Thunder have had a better winning percentage and defensive rating without Williams.
OKC has gone 20-7 with Williams this season and 37-8 without the star forward.
While the Thunder come into Boston on Wednesday with a 12-game win streak, they are unlikely to win out the rest of the season.
Facing an elite Celtics team on the road while still working Williams back into the lineup is too tall of a task to back OKC as a road favorite.