Pickens may have to cave to Cowboys or be forcefed $111M over 4 years
· Yahoo Sports
The Dallas Cowboys really do hold all of the cards. The team made a very smart trade last May, after failing to have Tetoria McMillan fall to them in the first round, the Cowboys gave up their 2026 third-round pick along with a 2027 Day 3 pick swap to acquire WR George Pickens from the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys needed to improve their passing game, and adding Pickens to WR CeeDee Lamb worked extremely well.
But now, a year later, and the two sides are in a predictable contract face-off. The fourth-year wideout balled out to an All-Pro level, making the trade for a player with just one year remaining on his deal worth it. The Cowboys aren't ready to pay him at the top-of-the-market though, and Pickens wants to be compensated at a level that equals his status in the league. If both sides dig in, there may be the usual offseason drama in Dallas, but this time the Cowboys organization has a strong upper hand.
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The Cowboys have allowed Pickens to explore deals with other teams; that's what the non-exclusive tag allows. Thus far, there's been little chatter about a team willing to engage in trade talks with the Cowboys and give Pickens the contract amount he's seeking.
Pickens can't sign an offer sheet with a club without the acquiring team committing two first-round picks to Dallas. The parameters of a deal would have to be agreed to, unofficially, and then the club engage in trade talks with the Cowboys for less than two firsts. So even in this way, the Cowboys hold all of the cards, but it goes much deeper than that.
Pickens, who had earned a reputation as a disruptor, was on his best behavior in Dallas. He has a timing issue, reportedly being late to meetings and missing curfew on multiple occasions, but those are hardly worthwhile talking points when the production on the field looks like Pickens'.
Why? Because the Cowboys have as much contractual control over Pickens they could want.
The wide receiver market continues to explode, but thanks to the franchise tag, and the Cowboys' comfort with using it as a tool, Dallas can keep Pickens on the roster for several years at less than market value.
Dallas has already leveraged the tag for 2026, which will pay Pickens $27.3 million this coming season. Combined with his $3.6 million price tag last season, the Cowboys got two years of All-Pro receiver play (projecting a similar output in 2026) for a third-round pick and $15.5 million a season.
That Average Annual Value (AAV) would rank 29th among NFL wideouts if it were a two-year deal. Even adding in a second tag in 2027 which would be for 120% or $32.8 million, Pickens would still be far below the current going rate. $63.7 million across three years is still just a $21.2 million AAV.
That's still outside the Top 20 of current wideout averages.
And get this, if the Cowboys did the normally unthinkable and use the rarified third franchise tag on Pickens, the one year amount would be an outrageous 144% of the prior salary, or $47.2 million. In 2028 that would likely qualify as the most expensive per-year number in the league. Jaxon Smith-Njigba just became the highest-paid WR ever at $42.15 million on average.
Puka Nacua may take that top slot, but he just checked himself into rehab. Is Chris Olave that guy? Likely not going to move the needle that much ahead. $47.2 million for Pickens would be outrageous in that light. But from the perspective of how much Dallas would have paid across four years since the trade?
$111 million. That's still just a $27.7 million average across four seasons.
Even if one were to look at new money from this point forward, excluding the rookie-deal 2025 salary, three franchise tags still comes up to $107.3 million across three years, or a $35.8 million average. That's steep, and clearly higher than Dallas wants to venture, but it's a year-by-year deal where there's never a commitment to future years.
Two tags? No brainer at $60 million total, $30 million per season. Would they love to spread out the cap hit across future seasons? Of course, but of all the teams who know how to manage the single-year big tag hit, it's the Cowboys.
This situation is lopsided in the Cowboys favor... until one factors in the reason Pickens was available for trade to begin with.
Pickens only recourse in this situation is to become a problem child. He'll rightfully sit out offseason work, but once training camp comes around in July, Pickens has to be there or fines and missed game penalties (missed preseason games cost regular season paychecks) will eat into the amount he sees at the end of the day.
Pickens can pull the hold-in model, to force the Cowboys' hands a bit, but in reality he's already burned those bridges with his issues in Pittsburgh. Adding more fuel to the fire of him being difficult to work with and risk damaging his long-term contract dreams in other competitive markets. Sure, places with no structure and no hope would pay him what he desires, but many teams with strong belief in culture may hesitate.
It would become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Pickens may have to cave to Cowboys or be forcefed $111M over 4 years