Here’s the latest BAD petrol price forecast for May 2026
· The South African
Ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is continuing to unsettle global energy markets, as a United States-enforced blockade creates uncertainty around one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.
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The narrow channel, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments, has seen intensified naval patrols following the breakdown of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.
Shipping disruptions and rising costs
Shipping activity through the strait has become increasingly unpredictable.
While some vessels are still transiting under strict monitoring, others have diverted or delayed voyages amid fears of interception or escalation.
Major tanker operators are reportedly reassessing routes, with some considering longer alternatives around the Cape of Good Hope.
This adds significant time to deliveries and increases fuel and operational costs.
Insurance premiums for vessels operating in the Gulf region have also surged, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk.
Analysts say these additional costs are already feeding into global oil pricing structures.
Oil markets remain volatile
Global markets have responded with sharp swings.
Brent crude briefly pushed above $100 per barrel before retreating, but, as at the time of publishing, is once over the $100 mark, with traders weighing the likelihood of prolonged disruption against the possibility of renewed negotiations.
Energy experts warn that spare production capacity among OPEC+ countries is limited in the short term, reducing the market’s ability to cushion supply shocks.
There are also concerns that any escalation could threaten key oil infrastructure in the Gulf, compounding supply risks beyond shipping constraints alone.
Iran has condemned the blockade as an act of piracy and warned of potential retaliation, raising fears of a broader regional conflict that could further destabilise energy markets.
Growing impact on South Africa
For South Africa, the fallout could be significant.
As a net importer of fuel, the country remains highly vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations and movements in the rand.
Rising crude prices, combined with higher shipping and insurance costs, are likely to place upward pressure on local fuel prices.
Early data already indicates growing under-recoveries in the fuel price cycle, pointing to possible increases in both petrol and diesel in the coming months.
Economists caution that the impact could extend beyond the fuel pump. Higher transport costs may push up food prices and contribute to broader inflation, placing additional strain on households and businesses.
Uncertain outlook
While there are still indications that diplomatic channels could reopen, the situation remains fluid.
Continued military activity in and around the strait underscores the fragility of the current environment.
With global markets closely monitoring developments, even partial disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is proving enough to keep oil prices volatile – and for countries like South Africa, the economic consequences may soon be felt more sharply.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93increase of 186 centsPetrol 95increase of 219 centsDiesel 0.05%increase of 624 centsDiesel 0.005%increase of 625 centsIlluminating Paraffinincrease of 524 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 186 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 219 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 624 and 625 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 524 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $104.50 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.56/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.