South Africa’s motorists could catch a fuel break in June 2026
· The South African
South African motorists may still face another petrol price increase in June, despite fuel prices finally moving into an over-recovery after months of relentless hikes.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a significantly improved fuel outlook, with petrol recoveries turning positive for the first time in three months and diesel users expected to see substantial relief.
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However, the partial withdrawal of government’s temporary fuel levy relief means petrol drivers are still likely to feel pain at the pumps next week.
Petrol moves into positive territory
At the start of May, petrol prices reflected an under-recovery of around 85 cents per litre as motorists continued to absorb the effects of global oil volatility and a weaker rand.
But the latest CEF figures now show petrol in over-recovery territory:
- Petrol 93: over-recovery of 26 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: over-recovery of 21 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): over-recovery of R5.29 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): over-recovery of R4.60 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: over-recovery of R5.60 per litre
While this signals a major improvement in fuel recoveries, petrol motorists are unlikely to benefit from lower prices in June.
Fuel levy reversal cancels out gains
The main reason is the National Treasury’s decision to begin phasing out temporary fuel levy relief introduced in April to soften the blow of soaring fuel prices.
From June, government will add back R1.50 per litre to petrol prices, reversing half of the R3.00 per litre relief granted earlier this year.
Diesel users will also see a partial levy return of R1.97 per litre after previously receiving R3.93 in relief.
Government has confirmed the remaining relief is expected to fall away completely in July unless further intervention is announced.
As a result, economists expect petrol prices to still rise by more than R1.20 per litre in June despite the improving recovery picture.
Diesel drivers could finally catch a break
Diesel motorists and transport-reliant industries stand to benefit the most.
The current over-recovery is large enough to comfortably absorb the partial return of the diesel levy, with wholesale diesel prices still expected to decline by between R2.60 and R3.30 per litre in June.
Some analysts have speculated that Treasury could accelerate the reintroduction of the full diesel levy, but even in that scenario diesel users may still receive price cuts at the pumps.
Why the outlook improved
The recent stabilisation follows months of steep fuel increases linked to elevated oil prices and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
A relatively stronger rand – trading mostly below R17 to the US dollar – together with steadier oil prices has helped calm volatility in recent weeks.
However, economists warn the outlook remains fragile. Fresh geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, or a renewed oil surge above $120 a barrel could quickly reverse the gains.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official June fuel price adjustments at the end of the month, with the new prices set to take effect in early June.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for June 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93decrease of 26 centsPetrol 95decrease of 21 centsDiesel 0.05%decrease of 529 centsDiesel 0.005%decrease of 460 centsIlluminating Paraffindecrease of 560 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 26 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 21 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 460 and 529 cents per litre decrease.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 560 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $96.20 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.33/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 2 June.