TST Best Bets: NBA Finals Edition
· Yahoo Sports
The NBA Finals are officially underway, and it’s been a long, winding road to get here.
The Eastern Conference’s No. 4 seed, the New York Knicks’ season was regarded as somewhat disappointing after firing head coach Tom Thibodeau after last year’s Eastern Conference Finals loss.
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However, after falling down 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, the Knicks have unleashed one of the most dominant postseason runs we’ve seen in NBA history, rattling off 10 straight wins and sweeping through the second and third rounds of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, while the San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most dominant teams all season, questions surrounding their ability to contend for a championship were based on the team’s youth and playoff inexperience.
However, the Spurs crushed that narrative. In a road Game 7 against the defending champions, the exact type of situation you would expect to see a young team crumble in, San Antonio prevailed, and not through a monstrous performance from their superstar, but from an all-around team effort.
Now, Victor Wembanyama will look to lead his team to a title in just his third season of his career, and will need to quell the surging red-hot Knicks to do it.
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First Pick: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 over New York Knicks
Rundown: The Spurs are -185 favorites to win this series, which makes sense considering they were the significantly better regular season team.
However, there is a major swing factor in terms of rest in this series.
The Knicks reached the NBA Finals in just 12 games, while the Spurs needed 18. More importantly, New York swept its way through the Eastern Conference Finals, while San Antonio was pushed to seven games in the West. In NBA history, teams coming off a conference finals sweep are 5-2 in the Finals against opponents that needed seven games to advance.
While this factor will heavily favor New York as the series goes on, and is the biggest reason to bet New York +161 for the series, Game 1 is the one scenario where that impact may have the reverse effect.
This is a classic rust vs. rest game, and when the Knicks were in a similar situation against the Cleveland Cavaliers after a nine-day layoff from their last game, New York came out incredibly flat.
The Knicks were able to miraculously pull off a 22-point fourth quarter comeback after a Cavs collapse, and their disappointing start to that game is even more pronounced by how much New York dominated Cleveland through the rest of the series.
New York cannot afford to have a start like that against San Antonio, and playing on the road in their first NBA Finals game, expect the three-point shooting to come along slowly for the Knicks.
This also plays into San Antonio’s defensive strategy.
Led by the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in Wembanyama, the Spurs are more than happy to crash on the opposing team’s offensive engine and let their role players shoot threes.
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander was limited greatly offensively in the Western Conference Finals, but he averaged 8.9 assists, as he was able to spray out passes to his shooters at will throughout the series.
Expect San Antonio to deploy a similar strategy in guarding Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks’ outside shooters from their role players in response to that defense will be a major deciding factor for who takes home the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
In Game 1, this column predicts the shooting variance to favor the home team, as the Spurs cover and take a 1-0 lead in the NBA Finals.
Mar 1, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) drives to the basket against San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden.Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Mar 1, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) drives to the basket against San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden.
Second Pick: San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks – Under 217.5
Rundown: To coincide with our analysis of the game above, this same-game parlay bets on the Knicks to have a poor offensive night in the loss, which should result in the under hitting.
While the Spurs have hit the over in eight of their last 10, the Knicks showed they have some answers in guarding Wembanyama.
New York went 2-1 against San Antonio in the season series, and in the NBA Cup Finale, star forward OG Anunoby saw great success guarding the Frenchman, holding him to 18 points and six rebounds.
A feel-out game for Wembanyama combined with the Knicks shooting poorly from distance will make the under the safe pick for Game 1.