LILLEY: Will Carney announce mixed submarine fleet on his way to NATO?
· Toronto Sun
There’s a good chance that Prime Minister Mark Carney could make a brief stop in Halifax on his way to the NATO Summit in Turkey this week.
Speculation has been building that the Royal Canadian Navy is preparing to announce the winner of its competition for a new submarine fleet, and Monday would be an ideal day to do it.
Visit extonnews.click for more information.
There is also speculation that, instead of awarding the contract to a single company, the government could split the purchase between the two finalists. More on that in a moment.
Carney is headed to Ankara for the NATO summit, where the first day is devoted to the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum. The agenda for the forum promises procurement announcements and will open with what organizers are calling a “Big Reveal.”
Vice-Admiral Dan Charlebois, Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, is scheduled to be in Halifax on Monday. That is not unusual in itself, but it would make it easier for Carney to drop in, make a major naval announcement and then continue on to Ankara.
The government has been incredibly tight-lipped about the pending decision on the future submarine fleet, beyond repeatedly telling Canadians that an announcement is coming soon.
While the government had previously said a decision would be announced before the end of June, Stephen Fuhr, Carney’s secretary of state for defence procurement, said in mid-June that Canadians could expect a decision within 30 days.
Germany versus South Korea: Two submarines built for very different missions
The competition, officially known as the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, has been narrowed to two companies: Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean.
The German Type 212CD is widely regarded as being exceptionally quiet and well suited to anti-submarine warfare and intelligence-gathering missions, particularly in areas such as the Arctic and North Atlantic. The Korean KSS-III, meanwhile, is larger, has greater range and endurance, and is considered better suited for long-distance deployments across Canada’s vast maritime approaches.
If money were no object, buying six of each submarine and operating a mixed fleet could make sense. The navy would gain access to the strengths of both designs and could potentially speed up delivery timelines by drawing from two production lines rather than one. Relying on a single supplier could mean waiting until well into the 2040s before all 12 submarines are in service.
The Korean KSS-III comes with both advantages and drawbacks. Its biggest advantage is that Hanwha argues it can deliver boats more quickly than the German alternative. The downside is that no NATO member currently operates the submarine. In fact, Canada would be the first export customer if the Carney government chooses Hanwha for all or part of the contract.
Navy leadership is open to splitting the fleet
Splitting the fleet would also offer geopolitical benefits. Canada could deepen strategic partnerships in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific while avoiding the appearance of choosing one region over the other.
The leadership of the Royal Canadian Navy has indicated it would be comfortable operating a mixed fleet, despite the obvious increase in costs associated with maintaining two training systems, two maintenance programs and two separate supply chains.
That stands in sharp contrast to the position taken by the Royal Canadian Air Force on fighter aircraft. Senior Air Force leaders have consistently opposed operating both the F-35 and the Swedish-made Gripen, arguing that a mixed fleet would increase costs and complexity. Yet the Carney government appears to be considering precisely that option for fighter aircraft, despite those objections.
What would that mean for investment in Canada?
Throughout the submarine competition, the government has made it clear that major industrial benefits for Canada will play a significant role in the final decision.
In support of Hanwha’s bid, the South Korean government has promoted partnerships with Algoma Steel in Ontario and floated the possibility of Hyundai establishing a Canadian manufacturing facility for hydrogen-powered long-haul freight trucks.
TKMS, by contrast, has focused its industrial pitch on long-term defence partnerships. The company has proposed working with CAE in Montreal on submarine training systems and simulators, partnering with Seaspan Shipyards in British Columbia on maintenance and sustainment, and integrating Canadian firms into its global supply chain.
What happens to those commitments if the contract is split remains unclear.
Would Canadians receive half the promised investment from each company? Would all of the proposed partnerships proceed? Or would dividing the contract dilute some of the economic benefits that have formed such a key part of both bids?
Those are questions Ottawa has not answered.
Whether Carney makes the announcement in Halifax on Monday or saves it for later, the decision will shape the Royal Canadian Navy — and Canada’s defence posture —for a generation.