The NBA's waiting game: LeBron James and the biggest remaining questions of the offseason
· Yahoo Sports
Welcome to the dark days of the offseason. Summer League was a nice solvent for those of us starved of legitimate basketball, but that’s come and gone. There are still a number of items that need to be addressed this offseason, ones that are holding up the rest of the league in one way or another. Let’s take a look.
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What’s the holdup with LeBron?
If the mere visualization of LeBron James’ latest free agency saga wasn’t the biggest indicator that the NBA offseason has reached its Rubicon point, I’m not sure how else to explain it. These are dark times.
This is perhaps the first time in league history where 98% of the basketball world has been in the dark for this long about where a player will eventually end up. Let’s even push that to 99%. Social media is clinging to every word and every episode of the Game Over podcast with James’ agent Rich Paul and co-host Max Kellerman like it’s peak Succession era.
Ask front office executives about this topic and you’re met with laughter and confusion, because it truly is both hilarious and head-scratching. At this juncture, we know the major players: Cleveland, Miami, Philadelphia and maybe Golden State. No need to inundate you with a laundry list of reasons for each destination, but briefly …
Cleveland: The storybook ending, a chance to return home to where it started. Teaming up with Donovan Mitchell, a player LeBron has spoken highly about in the past, and Kenny Atkinson, a highly respected tactician.
Miami: Quality of life, no state income tax (which should come into play if reports of James not considering finances as a deciding factor are true), teaming up with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo to form the most physical and feared frontline in years.
Philadelphia: The contention angle, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid (along with talented second-year guard VJ Edgecombe) certainly have the talent to push the Knicks in a seven-game series.
Golden State: Aura farming. The draw is Steph Curry and no one else. Two GOATs of this generation finally sharing a locker room together outside of the All-Star game and Olympics.
We’ve already seen our fair share of blunders, too. There was Atkinson getting a little too liberal with his words during a summer league broadcast. YouTubeGate in Miami. And who can forget Warriors rookie Yaxdel Lendeborg making his very public pitch?
(There’s also the trickle-down effect LeBron’s decision has on the rest of the field. DeMar DeRozan, Jonathan Kuminga, Russell Westbrook and James Harden will all be affected by this in some fashion, whether it’s financial in Harden’s case or role/fit for the rest of the field.)
Our Kevin O’Connor opined on James’ indecision, tying his former teammates Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis as reported reasons behind the delay, which makes a ton of sense. But this isn’t 2006 or 2016. Most teams have sewn up their summer business by now. Even the commissioner is complaining. Maybe we’ll have an answer by the time GTA 6 comes out.
When will Kawhi/Aspiration investigation wrap up?
Recent word from around the NBA suggests the Clippers are extremely displeased with Adam Silver and the league office on the scope and length of their internal investigation — and continue to communicate such displeasure.
It was September of 2025 when the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz was hired to investigate whether or not Los Angeles and team governor Steve Ballmer knowingly circumvented the salary cap by way of a $28 million endorsement deal between Kawhi Leonard and Aspiration, a company that has since gone bankrupt and seen its co-founder, Joseph Sanberg, sentenced to 14 years in federal prison for wire fraud. We’re creeping up on a year now!
“I would say this can be wrapped up — and needs to be wrapped up — before next season,” Silver said during the recent Board of Governors meetings in Las Vegas earlier this month.
The Clippers’ frustration likely stems from team planning. A prior agreement in principle, which would send Leonard to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick, involves two players who stand to assume sizable roles in Ty Lue’s rotation. But because the findings from the investigation could theoretically result in a possible suspension for Leonard, it’s understandable that the Raptors, having given up a decent amount of capital, would want to pause things temporarily.
There’s also the additional unearthing of a second investigation regarding Leonard/Aspiration, according to The Athletic in a recent report. From two weeks ago:
“Not only has Wachtell Lipton, the league’s go-to law firm hired to conduct the inquiry, inspected if the Clippers circumvented the NBA salary cap by facilitating a sponsorship deal for Leonard with Aspiration, it has also looked into whether the Clippers improperly covered expenses for Leonard but were not reimbursed for them, those sources said. And the firm has examined if Leonard had a previously unreported endorsement deal with another company, those sources said.”
Which will finish first? Kawhi’s investigation, LeBron’s free agency or House of the Dragon?
How will Pistons-Jalen Duren staring contest end?
It seems something like this happens every season: a player outperforms his current contract, may/may not have a poor postseason showing, heads into the offseason assuming he has a plethora of leverage only to be handed down a swift, unfortunate dose of reality.
Duren wants the max. Five years, $287 million. He is 22 years old, was a critical piece of a Pistons team that shocked the world en route to 60 wins and finished third team All-NBA.
He’s also a restricted free agent. Detroit, having dipped into its financial flexibility war chest to acquire Isaiah Joe (nontaxpayer mid-level exception) and John Collins (sign-and-trade), is hesitant to commit nearly $60 million annually to a center who might not be dependable in a playoff setting — in addition to having to eventually pay Ausar Thompson (All-Defense) and already on the hook with Cade Cunningham (All-NBA). Sprinkle in Victor Wembanyama’s “discount,” which came at the worst possible time for a rival player in negotiations, and it’s easy to see the Pistons’ hesitancy as well as Duren’s gripe.
You know it’s rocky when your starting center takes a meeting with another team (Lakers) only for said team to immediately turn around and bring in someone else (Walker Kessler). We’re talking about a multi-million dollar difference in valuation between player and organization — this could take a while (something you definitely haven’t heard elsewhere today!).
“They’re just going to sit and stare at each other,” said one executive. “It’s a staring contest. Sounds like he wants more.”
Duren taking 25% of the salary cap, as opposed to the 30% he’s likely seeking, would put him just north of $40 million. The other option would be to take a chance on himself, bet that he could rewrite his playoff struggles and accept a one-year, $9.6 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The facts are the facts. Restricted free agency is not particularly kind to players (see Quentin Grimes, Jonathan Kuminga, Tari Eason) because it gives overwhelming power to the incumbent team.