Robbie Ray trade grades for Padres, Giants after shocking deadline deal
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The San Diego Padres, under the watchful eye of general manager A.J. Preller, have never been shy to go for it despite living in a Los Angeles Dodgers-dominated MLB world. Prior to the trade deadline, the Padres made massive starting rotation upgrades, acquiring Casey Mize from the Detroit Tigers after pulling off a trade with the San Francisco Giants for Robbie Ray.
The Padres have been playing good baseball as of late, and they find themselves just one game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Fortifying their starting rotation was a must if they were serious about making a push for the postseason, and that’s what they did.
In trading for Ray, the Padres gave up two prospects in right-handed pitcher Miguel Mendez and shortstop Joniel Fernandez.
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How did the Padres and Giants fare with this trade? Here are trade grades for the two NL West sides who found themselves on the opposite ends of the buyer-seller spectrum in this year’s deadline festivities.
Padres add rotation stability with Robbie Ray trade
The Padres boast one of the best bullpens in MLB, with Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller locking things down for San Diego late in games. The problem has been getting the team into a position where those two can simply shut the door and get the win for the Padres.
San Diego has had one of the worst starting rotations in MLB in 2026. According to StatMuse, they entered their Monday night contest against the Arizona Diamondbacks with the eighth-worst starting rotation ERA in the big leagues. Suffice to say, they needed some rotation upgrades badly, and that’s what they got in the form of Mize and Ray.
Ray will be hitting free agency at season’s end, so he’s merely a rental. On the season, he is sporting an ERA of 3.08 across 22 appearances (21 starts). He’s pitched in 122.2 innings this year, making him one of the more durable pitchers in MLB.
The 34-year-old lefty has been getting elite results since the start of June; since the first of the aforementioned month, Ray has tallied an ERA of 1.65 across nine starts (10 appearances), and he’s gone 7-0 during that span — a big deal when he was pitching for one of the worst teams in the big leagues this year, the Giants.
There are some concerns with Ray’s underlying stats. He’s struck out 107 batters this year, but he’s walked 57 of them. He hasn’t even recorded two strikeouts with every walk he allows. It can be a bit concerning as well that he’s struggled outside of Oracle Park.
In 57.2 innings away from the Giants’ home, he’s sporting an ERA of 4.06 (against a 2.22 ERA at home) and he’s allowing an OPS of .785 on the road. Perhaps this was more of a comfort thing. The Padres, nonetheless, believe that his success at home can carry over to Petco Park, as Statcast’s Park Factors stat has the Giants’ home as being more hitter-friendly than the Padres’ this year.
Considering how the Padres’ starters have badly struggled this year, Ray’s ability to get results should make him a solid piece for the stretch run. San Diego did give up two talented prospects but they needed to do so to address a glaring roster weakness.
Grade: A-
Giants look towards the future
The Giants had a 47-65 record heading into play on Monday, so the smartest thing to do was to sell off some pieces who can help contending ballclubs. They did so by trading Ray, an impending free agent, away for two prospects who possess a ton of upside.
The one closer to the big leagues is Mendez, a 24-year-old right-hander who throws in the high-90s and the low-100s. His fastball is a blur, and he pairs that with a slider that can fool hitters. He is currently a starting pitcher in Double-A where he has an ERA of 4.93 in 11 starts (34.2 innings).
If Mendez cannot cut down on his walks (4.29 per nine in the minors this year), he definitely has the stuff to perform, even in a bullpen role. But the Giants are surely going to develop him as a starter. He is currently ranked 14th in San Francisco’s system, as per MLB.com.
The wild card in this trade is Hernandez, a 17-year-old who is still in rookie ball. He projects to have the tools to stay at shortstop, and scouts are salivating over his power potential. But he’s a lottery ticket as of the moment. The Giants, of course, are smart to take a chance on him, but the range of outcomes here remains huge.
Grade: B+
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