NOAA just put a number on something that would make this the biggest one ever recorded
· The South African
South Africa’s developing El Niño has already been compared to the major events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.
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Now, NOAA’s own Climate Prediction Center says this one could surpass all three.
The number that changes the conversation
In its 13 August 2026 forecast discussion, NOAA gave the October–December 2026 season a 69% chance of a “historic event”, defined by NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index reaching at least 2.5°C, that would exceed the strength of every El Niño recorded since 1950.
That’s a meaningfully different claim from simply reaching “very strong” status.
It’s the possibility of setting an entirely new benchmark.
NOAA also raised the odds of a very strong event itself to 95%, up from 81% just a month earlier.
Why scientists are still holding back on certainty
NOAA has been careful to frame this as a strong possibility, not a guaranteed outcome.
Individual El Niño events behave differently from each other, and the agency stresses that reaching this level of strength wouldn’t automatically mean South Africa faces its worst-ever summer.
What it does mean is that the range of realistic outcomes now stretches further than it did just a few weeks ago.
What’s actually expected either way
Regardless of exactly how strong it becomes, forecasters agree on the broad shape of what’s coming: above-normal temperatures from August through December, and an increased risk of below-normal rainfall across the summer rainfall region.
The real uncertainty lies in just how far past “strong” this event ends up pushing.
It’s hectic enough knowing this could be only the fourth Super El Niño since 1950, now there’s a real chance it beats every single one of them. History in the making seems to be the theme of 2026.
Does a number like 69% change how seriously you’re taking this summer’s forecast, or were you already bracing for it?
Let us know in the comments below, Mzansi…