Apple's iPhone Duo Could Make Foldables Dominate Phone Sales Within A Decade: Report
· Free Press Journal
Apple's newly unveiled iPhone Duo could do for foldable phones what the original iPhone did for smartphones nearly two decades ago. In his September 13 Power On newsletter, analyst Mark Gurman predicted that foldables will grow from a niche category into the majority of new phone sales within the next ten years, with the Duo serving as the catalyst.
Foldables are still a tiny slice of the market
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Foldable phones currently account for only about 2 percent of global smartphone shipments, according to Gurman's newsletter. That is the baseline his bullish, decade-long prediction is measuring against, and by his own admission, it is a steep climb. Gurman was careful to note that this forecast reflects his own reading of the market rather than information sourced from inside Apple.
iPhone Duo Design Flaw? Left-Handed Users Raise Concerns Over Apple’s First FoldableDrawing a parallel to the original iPhone
Gurman's comparison rests on how quickly smartphones themselves reshaped the industry after 2007. Before the original iPhone launched, smartphones made up roughly 6 percent of global mobile phone shipments. Within six years, they had become the majority of phones sold worldwide, and today they account for close to 85 percent of all handsets sold globally. Gurman expects foldables to begin climbing a similar curve now that Apple has entered the category with the Duo. "Users will increasingly see the benefits of having a larger display in their pocket and a device that can replace a laptop or tablet for many tasks. Foldables could become the do-it-all computing products of the future," Gurman wrote.
Why the Duo, specifically
Gurman argues the Duo has "game-changing potential" because Apple has paired refined hardware with clear, dedicated reasons to actually use the fold. Video, gaming, and photography get their own two-screen features, while StandBy widgets and FaceTime are designed to work with the phone propped up in its folded position. He also pointed out that Apple's approach to the device has generated unusually high social media interest, driven partly by its $1,999 price, 7.6-inch inner display, and the notable absence of Face ID.
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Gurman is upfront that the shift toward foldables will take considerably longer than the original smartphone transition, largely because of cost. Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold8, positioned as the closest rival to the Duo, sits in a similar price bracket, meaning no major player in the category is currently competing on price. Whichever foldable a buyer chooses, they are paying well above flagship pricing for the folding display. Gurman does expect this to ease over time, pointing to Apple's Upgrade leasing program expanding internationally and the company emphasising monthly payment figures in its marketing rather than full sticker prices.
Not just about Apple winning the category
Gurman's longer-term argument is less about Apple permanently dominating foldable sales and more about the ripple effect the Duo could have across the industry. He expects rival Android manufacturers to respond by investing more heavily in their own foldable hardware and software, mirroring how the original iPhone pushed competitors toward touchscreens and app-centred designs even after Apple's early smartphone lead eventually narrowed. In Gurman's view, increased competition and production volume should gradually bring down component costs, making foldables more affordable industry-wide over the coming years.
How this compares to other forecasts
Gurman's decade-long projection is notably more bullish than other analyst estimates for the category so far this year, with most projections keeping foldables under 3 percent of global smartphone sales through 2026. Separately, shipment forecasts for the Duo itself have varied widely: Goldman Sachs has reportedly modelled a 2026 base case of 14 million units with a bullish scenario of up to 35 million, while TrendForce's more conservative estimate sits at around 5 million units for the year.