Yordan Alvarez's season puts him in exclusive company, but are Triple Crown, AL MVP still possible?
· Yahoo Sports
After missing two games with a sore ankle, Yordan Alvarez returned to the Houston Astros' lineup Sunday to resume the club's quest for the postseason and his own bid for history.
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With two weeks left in the season, Alvarez entered Tuesday first or second in the American League in all three Triple Crown categories, vying to become just the second hitter in MLB since 1967 to accomplish a Triple Crown.
An ebb in production since early August - mirroring his team's - has resulted in Alvarez being surpassed in home runs and RBIs, however, imperiling his chances at just the 16th Triple Crown season in the NL or AL since 1900.
Alvarez, who in late July declared himself done with Triple Crown questions, no doubt holds the Astros' playoff chances in higher priority. Still, with two weeks to play, where does his Triple Crown bid stand? And with the Astros clinging to an AL West lead, is Alvarez still a presumptive AL MVP favorite?
Triple Crown pursuit
Entering Tuesday, Alvarez ranked first in the American League in batting average (.310), tied for second in home runs (38) after the Rays' Junior Caminero (40) and second in RBIs (96) after the Orioles' Pete Alonso (100).
Alvarez reached August with a lead in all three categories. From Aug. 3, though, Alvarez batted .242 with three home runs and 12 RBIs across his next 35 games.
Alvarez reached base at a .380 clip in that stretch, but his walk rate reinforced Alvarez's observation that pitchers seemed more intent on trying to get him to chase outside the zone - or challenge other batters in a top-heavy Houston lineup to beat them.
"I think the stuff that's happening is they're simply not letting pitches stay in the zone like I was hunting when I was aggressive," Alvarez said through an interpreter Sept. 7. "Those same pitches, they're not leaving them in the zone as they did before."
Amid the dip in power production, Alvarez still entered Tuesday with a five-point lead in batting average, in a peculiar race for the American League batting title.
Chandler Simpson, the Rays outfielder and speedster, was second with a .305 average entering Tuesday. Besides that, no two hitters in the majors may be more different. Simpson has zero home runs in the majors. He leads the AL with 41 steals this season; Alvarez has one. Alvarez leads the majors with a 1.106 OPS; Simpson sports a .686 OPS that is tied for 115th among 136 qualified hitters.
Simpson's teammate, Caminero, recorded his AL-leading 40th home run Friday, walking off the Astros at Tropicana Field and securing the Rays' spot in the playoffs. Caminero has hit 10 home runs since Aug. 3 to wrest the lead from Alvarez, even as he went without one for a 15-game stretch in mid-August. The Rays third baseman hit 45 homers last season, so this pace is not unprecedented for him.
Nor is that of Alonso, who has already reached 100 RBIs for the fifth time in seven full-length seasons in MLB. Of course, there is a team aspect to RBIs, inviting a look at how often Alvarez is getting chances to drive runners in without home runs right now.
From Aug. 3 through Monday, Alvarez had taken 54 plate appearances with a runner on base, according to Baseball Savant. Alec Burleson of the Cardinals, the majors' RBI leader, had 94 such plate appearances in that same stretch. Caminero had 80. Alonso had 65.
Alvarez had just 27 plate appearances in 35 games in that stretch with a runner in scoring position, per Baseball Savant, indicating the Astros must create more opportunities for him to drive in runs - from a team standpoint, not that of a Triple Crown.
The Astros scored three runs over the two games Alvarez missed against Tampa Bay with his sore right ankle, which he turned running the bases last Thursday in Philadelphia. He sounded less than effusive after Sunday's game about the ankle - "I went out there and played and I think that's what matters" - but took two plate appearances and was in the lineup Tuesday against the Royals after a team off day.
Alvarez, notably, took early on-field batting practice Tuesday at Daikin Park, something he has done only a handful of times this season.
Is Yordan Alvarez still AL MVP frontrunner?
If Alvarez gets hot for the final two weeks and wins a Triple Crown - especially if the Astros hold off the Rangers and Mariners to win the AL West - it would likely solidify his MVP frontrunner status. (Though anticipating the thoughts of 30 voters is impossible). Since Carl Yastrzemski won a Triple Crown in 1967, the only hitter to accomplish the feat is Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
If the Triple Crown eludes Alvarez, however, will that expand AL MVP considerations, particularly if the Astros fail to reach the playoffs?
Cabrera received 22 of 28 first-place votes for MVP in 2012, when he led the majors with a .999 OPS, though Mike Trout, who finished second, eclipsed Cabrera handily in wins above replacement. Trout accrued a 10.5 bWAR that season, while Cabrera had a 7.1 bWAR.
WAR is not the end-all, but it can be instructive. Over the last decade, 12 of the 18 MVP winners in full-length seasons led their respective leagues in bWAR. In four of the six exception seasons, a pitcher led that league in bWAR. No pitcher has claimed an MVP award - excluding two-way player Shohei Ohtani - since Clayton Kershaw in 2014.
Entering Tuesday, Alvarez ranked sixth in the American League with a 5.8 bWAR. Ahead of him were pitchers Cam Schlittler (Yankees) and Dylan Cease (Blue Jays), infielders Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) and Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) and outfielder Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox). FanGraphs also had Alvarez at 5.8 WAR, with Witt and Schlittler the only AL players ahead of him.
Witt, McGonigle and Abreu are all strong defenders, which boosts their WAR. Alvarez, still, entered Tuesday with an OPS more than 200 points higher than all three. His OPS was more than 100 points higher than that of Caminero, who could command MVP consideration as the most productive hitter on a Rays team with the American League's best record.
Ohtani, in 2024, became the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP award. While it came in a season in which Ohtani became the first MLB player to have a 50-homer, 50-steal season, it perhaps lessened the barrier for a player like Alvarez, who has made 124 of his starts at designated hitter this season, albeit with 23 starts in left field.
As a result, it may be worth weighing the offensive dominance Alvarez has displayed compared to the rest of his league, even with his recent downturn.
Among qualified AL hitters, Alvarez entered Tuesday with a 112-point lead in OPS over the next-closest hitter, Willson Contreras. He had a 31-point lead in adjusted OPS-plus, over Contreras, per Baseball Reference, as well as 34 more runs created than the next-closest AL hitter in that category, Alonso.
Since 1900, eight hitters have led their respective leagues in all three of those categories by a margin at least that wide for a season, per Baseball Reference. In the AL: Aaron Judge (one season, in 2025), Ted Williams (four), Babe Ruth (five) and Nap Lajoie (one). In the NL: Barry Bonds (three), Rogers Hornsby (three), Stan Musial (two) and Mark McGwire (one).
Alvarez also entered Tuesday with a Win Probability Added value that was 3.0 higher than the second-highest AL player, the Yankees' Ben Rice, per Baseball Reference. The list of players who have led their league in WPA by at least that margin for a full season: Ruth, Bonds, Williams, Willie McCovey, Mickey Mantle, Al Simmons and Ty Cobb. Only Bonds and McCovey did it in the expansion era, since 1961.
Combining those criteria, here is the list of seasons since 1900 in which a player led his league in OPS, adjusted OPS-plus, runs created and win probability added by at least as wide a margin as Alvarez had Tuesday: Barry Bonds (2004, '02, '01), Ted Williams (1946, '42) and Babe Ruth (1926, '24, '23, '22, '20).
Triple Crown or not, then, Alvarez is on pace to join exclusive company with the offensive season he is compiling. Two weeks remain to sway it - in either direction.
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