The Best Picks For Week 3 In The Ever-Changing NFL
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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 13: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) is hit by Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny (99) in the first quarter of play during a NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts on September 13, 2026 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesAnother week, another round of “let’s try and figure out the NFL”. If you saw last night’s game you know the task can be daunting. The Atlanta Falcons team we saw in no way resembled the outfit of the previous two games. It’s a wonder what just a little bit of competent quarterback play can get you. On the other hand, it’s entirely probable that the Falcons will revert back to the Falcons again.
Looking forward to Sunday and Monday, I see opportunities to get back on track.
Your best bet odds for week three courtesy of Caesar’s Sportsbook.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 24: De'Von Achane #28 of the Miami Dolphins scores a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium on November 24, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesKansas City (-10.5) at Miami
The Chiefs struggled more than expected against Indianapolis, having to pull the game out in overtime. The Colts are a good football team and we shouldn’t be surprised they gave the Chiefs and their defense problems. That defense is something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. This is the perfect week to sort out any issues because Miami has no offense to speak of. De’Von Achane is an elite running back but he’s it. Look for Kansas City to get it right defensively. Also look for Kenneth Walker to have a big game. You rarely see double digit spreads in the NFL. This one is warranted.
The play: Lay the points and don’t sweat it.
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 04: T.J. Watt #90 of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts after intercepting a pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium on January 04, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesCincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh
The Bengals have looked good. The Steelers, outside of T. J. Watt, have not. I didn’t dig through the records but I’d bet it’s been a long time, if ever, that the Bengals have been as big a favorite over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. This looks like a lock. Joe Burrow is healthy and playing at a high level. Ja’Marr Chase shook off a bad week one and was his old self week two. Aaron Rodgers looked old, slow and disinterested Sunday. Well friends here’s the unexpected result of the week.
The play: take the points and consider Pittsburgh on the money line (+157)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 18: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans walks off the field after being sacked against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 18, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesHouston at Indianapolis (+1.5)
An early playoff elimination game perhaps?
Falling to 0-3 with a division loss could spell doom for either one of these teams. Houston was a trendy Super Bowl contender pick coming into the season. Indianapolis was supposed to be a playoff contender. At this moment, neither of these things are true. One team will get off the mat after this one. The Colts are at home. Houston still has a pretty outstanding defense. It comes down to quarterback play and who can you trust. I’m saying it out loud, I trust Daniel Jones more than C. J. Stroud. I also trust the Colts’ running game.
The play: Lay the points. Indianapolis in a squeaker.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 23: Jameis Winston #19 of the New York Giants throws a pass during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on November 23, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesTennessee (+2.5) at New York Giants
The Titans put up a valiant effort against Philadelphia Sunday. They had a real chance to win but couldn’t close it out. The Giants fell back to earth after so much optimism gained from the beating they gave Dallas. Jaxson Dart is out. Jameis Winston is in. I love Jameis but you know what he’s going to give you, which is something you won’t expect or never seen before. You take the good with the bad. The weather is supposed to be horrible. The running game and holding onto the football will decide this one. My gut says Winston decides this game one way or the other. I’m leaning towards the catastrophe scenario. Or he could throw three touchdowns and run the Titans out of the building. Nah, he’ll blow it.
The play: Tennessee covers and take the money line (+118)
Parlay special
Buffalo -7 vs Los Angeles Chargers (obvs)
San Francisco -8 vs. Arizona. The Niners look good.
Carolina money line vs. Cleveland (I think)
Minnesota (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay. The Vikings look to have a great defense.
Gut play: Baltimore money line vs. Dallas. The Ravens are ticked off.
Good luck figuring out the NFL this week.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com