WARMINGTON: New polls show Chow leading, Bradford hoping race will tighten with Rush frontman support

· Toronto Sun

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While new polling suggests Toronto is not looking for change at the top when it comes to who should be Toronto’s next mayor, these two legendary Torontonians are entitled to their own Freewill or be Head over Heels for whoever they want to be.

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Or perhaps this will prove to be Bad Timing or a case of “time standing still” for these two much-loved Big Smoke icons!

Time will tell which one of these candidates — Mayor Olivia Chow or Councillor Brad Bradford — is closer to Torontonians’ hearts. The election is Oct. 26.

Like any Toronto resident can vote for, and support, any candidate they choose. And Rush bassist and singer Geddy Lee and Blue Rodeo’s guitarist and singer Jim Cuddy have done just that.

“Now the moment you’ve been waiting for, our friend, the mayor of Toronto, our fine, beautiful City that we love, Olivia Chow,” Cuddy said, with his guitar on the stage of the Danforth Music Hall at the incumbent campaign kickoff Sept. 9.

The performer of such hits as Till I Am Myself Again and How Long has put his celebrity where his vote is. Then on Monday, Sept. 28, comes word that Lee is looking for a New World Man at the helm at City Hall by supporting Brad Bradford.

Geddy in a Rush to support Bradford

“I was born in Toronto and have built a life with my family here. It was always a place I’ve been proud to call home,” Lee posted to social media . “But it’s changing, and not for the better. I’m not one to make public statements about politicians, but I truly fear for the future of Toronto with its current leadership, and believe that Brad has energy, fresh ideas and really cares about all of this city’s communities.”

It seems one rock star is doing his best to try to put the mayor in the spotlight while the other is trying to thrust her main opponent into the Limelight .

Will any of it matter? Veteran Pollster John Wright does not think so.

The CEO of Canada Pulse Insights released a new survey of 510 respondents indicating, “Chow (at 51%) swamps Bradford (at 34%) and Chris Alexander (at 9%).”

Said Wright: “With just under four weeks to go until Toronto’s municipal election, a new Canada Pulse Insights poll for Rogers CityNews shows Mayor Olivia Chow leading her closest rival, City Councillor Brad Bradford, by 17 points among decided voters.”

Pollster does not believe celebrity support makes different

Wright said he doesn’t see rock star endorsements moving the needle.

“I’m a Rush fan…full transparency,” said Wright, adding, however, “at this stage in the race, celebrity endorsements are not going to have much impact. Often, they can give a sense of momentum or speak to specific constituencies. In this case, Geddy Lee is not just speaking as a musician but also as a resident with a heritage he talked about in his memoir. That will resonate with a group of voters that already have negative views of Mayor Chow but are not going to motivate the fifteen per cent of Torontonians who want change and not connecting to either the Bradford or Alexander messaging.”

As for Cuddy endorsing Chow?

It will do “nothing except give her some publicity and connect with his fans and that of Blue Rodeo,” said Wright.

One thing that surprised me was Wright’s interview on CityNews offering a view that despite almost a month to go, he feels it’s already in the bag for the current mayor.

“I would suggest at this stage, even though we’ve got roughly four weeks to go in the campaign, that Mayor Chow will be elected to a second term,” Wright told CityNews. “There’s just, I don’t think, enough anger against her; I don’t think there’s enough motivation to move her out of that position.”

But journalist and lawyer Caryma Sa’d, who is running for council in Ward 14 along The Danny, is skeptical that this race is over already.

“On the streets, I’m picking up on a general sense of malaise, and that people feel their options are limited,” she said, adding she believes this mayor’s race is more neck and neck between Bradford and Chow than what polls show. “It’s unfortunate because 53 people, many who are very qualified, threw their hats in the ring for mayor and yet only three capture all the focus. It’s as though the democratic process is curtailed before it even begins.”

With 27 days of campaigning left, how can you tell?

Polls are often correct, but I also don’t understand how a prediction can be made based on online surveying of 500 people and with 27 more full days of campaigning to go and more platforms to be released – like Bradford did Tuesday with saying he would eliminate land transfer taxes on the first $1.1-million on a home purchase?

But Wright said: “My opinion is based on 37 years of polling and conducting over a thousand polls. It’s my interpretation given the sample size and the questions asked about change . . . A majority want change, but fifteen per cent want it and are not angry or motivated enough to deliver their vote.”

And that Alexander “has sucked ten points out of” Bradford’s “sails” has resulted in it being a “significant challenge to catch the mayor.”

That said, this election will be determined in the polling both by the Working Man – and woman who will determine if they Lost Together or won together.

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