Israel braces for an election each side warns could bring ruin
· Axios
Israelis head to the polls today for one of the most consequential elections in the country's history — with rival camps warning that victory for the other would put Israel's future in jeopardy.
Why it matters: The elections are yet another referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership and the path he's taken the country down over the past four years.
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- It's Israeli voters' first chance to hold Netanyahu accountable for the security failures that led to the Hamas-led October 7 attacks — or to reward him for what he claims were unprecedented military successes in the three years of war since.
- If Netanyahu and his far-right coalition win, they're likely to renew the war with Iran in an effort to topple its regime, intensify their crackdown on Israel's democratic institutions and move to end Netanyahu's corruption trial.
Driving the news: Netanyahu's campaign was totally focused on the war with Iran. After two military campaigns over the last 18 months in which he claimed that Israel destroyed Iran's nuclear program, Netanyahu's main talking point was that Iran is moving closer to a nuclear bomb.
- Earlier this week, Netanyahu went as far as posting an AI-generated image of Tel Aviv being destroyed by an Iranian nuclear bomb — implying that's what will happen if he loses.
Behind the scenes: Netanyahu spent weeks trying to persuade President Trump to give him a green light to strike Iran ahead of the elections. Trump did not go along.
- In the 72 hours before the elections, Netanyahu tried to order the Israel Defense Forces to take steps to lay the ground for a potential new military strike or take actions short of an overt attack, Israeli officials say.
- IDF chief of staff General Eyal Zamir refused to abide. He warned that such a strike could lead to a miscalculation that quickly escalated hostilities and potentially forced the elections to be called off, the officials said.
- The Israeli officials said Zamir insisted there was no operational urgency in taking these steps ahead of the elections and eventually got Netanyahu to back off.
The other side: Netanyahu's main opponent, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, ran on holding Netanyahu accountable for the October 7 failure, forming a national commission of inquiry and drafting ultra-Orthodox men to strengthen the IDF after three years of war.
- Another Netanyahu opponent, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, blamed the incumbent for what he called extreme government dysfunction the past four years.
- Both attacked Netanyahu over the fact that some of his closest advisers and his campaign manager received money from Qatar in return for trying to sway Israeli public opinion during the war. Bennett called it "treason." (Netanyahu said he didn't know his advisers were paid by Qatar, and the aides said the money was for a project involving the World Cup.)
State of play: Netanyahu and his ultranationalist, ultra-Orthodox bloc arrived at the election unorganized, divided, and highly unpopular. Many of its voters are demoralized, and they face a significant risk of losing voters who back pro-Netanyahu parties that don't pass the 3.25% electoral threshold.
- The opposition bloc, by contrast, arrived at the elections well organized and with little risk of losing votes to the electoral threshold.
- The voters of the opposition parties have been much more motivated, with many civil society organizations focusing on canvassing and increasing turnout.
- More than 50,000 Israelis who have left the country over the last four years traveled back to participate in the elections, according to estimates. Most of them are expected to vote for the opposition parties.
- The turnout among the Arab minority in Israel is pegged to be the highest ever, with the two Arab parties projected to win around 15 seats combined. With 61 seats needed for a majority, that's a sizable bloc.
- But the final days of the campaign saw infighting between the opposition parties. Some members of Eisenkot's bloc have yet to accept his leadership.
Yes, but: Netanyahu has defied all odds multiple times before. He could still energize his base on election day and win back disgruntled voters who considered switching sides.
- Netanyahu doesn't have to win. He only needs to get enough seats to block his opponents from forming a coalition or swearing in a minority government. That would allow him to serve as a caretaker prime minister for another six months until another election is held.
What to watch: If the opposition bloc wins more seats than Netanyahu's, it will be up to Eisenkot to quickly unite his political partners behind a government that would remove Netanyahu from power.
- More than 7 million people are eligible to vote, and turnout is expected to be the highest in decades. Polls close at 4 pm ET.