What would an extension for William Contreras look like?
· Yahoo Sports
Since his arrival in a trade with Atlanta during the 2022-2023 offseason, William Conteras has been a rock-solid catcher for the Brewers. He has been one of the league leaders at the position for the past four seasons, earning two All-Star appearances and receiving MVP votes in 2023 and 2024. While his 2026 season took a bit of a hit, his leadership and play in the postseason were critical to the World Series run, culminating in him being named the World Series MVP this season. He is approaching free agency in 2028, and with the Brewers looking for a future catcher from there and beyond, an extension for Contreras has to be in play.
Entering 2027, Contreras is under team control for one more year. While he would have been arbitration-eligible, the Brewers signed him to a one-year contract with an option last offseason. They immediately picked up the option after the season was over, and he will make $15.5 million in 2027. The Brewers may have been able to save a little money by declining the option and heading to arbitration, but they elected not to go that route this time. That also sets up a baseline for what an extension would cost. At minimum, any extension would need to be above that $15.5 million in average annual value.
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While the general expectation with the Brewers would be to prep for the next prospect, the state of the Brewers’ farm system means that isn’t a viable option. Jeferson Quero was the prospect that they were hoping would take over at catcher following Contreras, but injuries have derailed that plan. In 2026 for Triple-A Nashville, he played just 48 games at catcher while serving as the designated hitter in 71 games. From July on, he only caught a total of three games for Nashville. Looking further down the minors, Marco Dinges is ranked No. 14 in the Brewers system on MLB Pipeline. However, he also faced similar problems, and served as a DH for most of the season between High-A Wisconsin and Double-A Biloxi. He also only caught three games from June on, and his season ended early on August 12.
That puts the Brewers in a tough spot at catcher. They don’t have a ready catcher waiting in the minors, and anyone they bring up would need time to develop. The only other option currently on the roster is Bo Naylor, who the Brewers acquired at the trade deadline from Cleveland. He spent a month in Nashville before spending September on the Brewers’ bench, barely playing at all. While he could be the Brewers’ backup catcher in 2027, he likely won’t be much more than that.
What that means is the Brewers will have to spend heavily in the near future at catcher. That could mean signing Contreras to a long-term extension, and hopefully find their future catcher during that time. It could also mean spending heavily with their prospect capital, trading players in their system to get a highly-ranked catcher. Even if the Brewers do that, whoever they bring up will still need some time to develop. They could also look at acquiring an established major league catcher by trade, but that would also require a high prospect cost, and potentially even higher than bringing in a prospect.
The pending lockout further complicates the situation as well. Even if the Brewers do acquire a catcher by trade, that catcher will likely need time to develop. For a minor-league player, it would be better to spend a season with Contreras in the majors. However, if the 2027 season is shortened due to a lockout, that takes away valuable development time. Depending on how much it is shortened, any prospect could be thrust into the primary role once Contreras becomes a free agent. This would be lessened by acquiring a major-league ready catcher, but there’s still the consideration of time to integrate with the pitching staff. It’s less of a time concern, but there still is one.
The solution that would be the most optimal is keeping Contreras around long-term. He can hold down the position for the next few seasons while the Brewers continue to search for that future catcher. Once they find him and he’s had time to develop in the minors, he can serve as a backup to Contreras for a year or two. As the contract hits the later years, and Contreras starts to feel the age from playing the position so long, he could transition to another position (likely DH or first base) while the new catcher takes over. Contreras can still serve as a mentor while providing value in the lineup to finish up the contract.
Looking at the extension, we have a baseline for Contreras at $15.5 million from his last year of arbitration. Here’s a look at the current top contracts at catcher around the league (contracts from Spotrac):
- Cal Raleigh (Mariners): six years / $105 million ($17.5 million AAV), signed in 2025 through 2030 with $20 million option for 2031
- J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): three years / $45 million ($15 million AAV), signed in 2026 through 2028
- Will Smith (Dodgers): 10 years / $140 million ($14 million AAV), signed in 2024 through 2033
- Salvador Perez (Royals): 2 years / $25 million ($12.5 million AAV), signed for 2026 and 2027
- Sean Murphy (Braves): six years / $73 million ($12.17 million AAV), signed in 2023 through 2028 with $15 million option for 2029
- Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays): five years / $58 million ($11.6 million AAV), signed in 2026 through 2030
- Samuel Basallo (Orioles): eight years / $67 million ($8.375 million AAV), signed in 2026 through 2033 with $18 million option for 2034
Contreras’ option for 2027 will already make him one of the highest paid catchers in the league. It puts him ahead of Realmuto at $15 million, and Raleigh’s highest earning years come later in his contract (he will earn $12 million in 2027 and $23 million in 2028). Smith will earn just $8 million in 2027, but he also has a total of $50 million in deferred money in his contract. By cash paid out, Contreras currently will earn the most of any catcher in 2027, pending any other deals this offseason. Raleigh is the player to beat here, with his 23.5 fWAR leading the position over the last five years. Contreras is 2nd in fWAR at catcher, posting a 19.5 fWAR in the last five years.
With that in mind, it’s reasonable to see that a contract approaching nine-figures may be needed to keep Contreras long-term. There is no chance he would sign a deal with a lower AAV than the $15.5 million he is making this season. Spotrac posted earlier this offseason that Contreras projects towards a six year, $86 million contract, but that is too low for an extension. It would only be an AAV of $14.33 million, and it’s highly unlikely that Contreras signs an extension with an AAV lower than what he’s making in 2027.
Pushing his AAV ahead of Raleigh might be enough to get it done. The team might have to push towards a nine-figure contract to make it happen. Six years at $110 million ($18.33 million AAV) would put him ahead of Raleigh in AAV, but the Brewers can also structure it to be more reasonable. With an infusion of money from the postseason run, it may make sense to include a higher signing bonus and lower the yearly salary. That would take him through his age 35 season, and by then there would be concerns on if the long career as a catcher is taking its toll.
Contreras has been an integral part of the Brewers for the last four seasons. He has become one of the best catchers in franchise history and one of the best currently in the league. With one more year until he becomes a free agent, the Brewers will need to make a significant investment at some point in the near future. Whether that is a big contract or a major trade, that moment is coming soon. Investing in Contreras may be one of the smarter moves they can make.