NFC East Playoff Scenarios: Cowboys and Giants Battling For Top Spot After Week 9
· Yahoo Sports
The New York Giants beat the Philadelphia Eagles 19-11 on Sunday and kept a two-game cushion over the Dallas Cowboys, who rallied past the Indianapolis Colts 27-23. The NFC East playoff scenarios from here turn on an Oct. 11 result: the Giants’ 27-27 tie in Washington.
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The Giants’ division odds climbed from 76.7% to 84.1% on PFN’s NFL Playoff Meter. Dallas won and stayed exactly where it started, at 12.7%.
NFC East Playoff Scenarios: Why the Giants’ Tie Matters
Ties count as half a win. The Giants have one and Dallas has none, so the two teams can’t finish with identical records unless another tie enters the picture. Dallas’ 28-20 loss in the Sept. 13 opener won’t decide anything, and a Jan. 3 win at AT&T Stadium wouldn’t break a deadlock that can’t happen. The Cowboys have to finish ahead outright.
That raises the bar. Dallas has eight games left, and New York has nine. If the Giants go 4-5 and finish 9-7-1, the Cowboys need a 6-2 finish to pass them. A 5-4 Giants finish to 10-6-1 means Dallas needs to go 7-1.
New York’s magic number over Dallas is seven, barring another tie. The Jan. 3 meeting is the only game that counts twice toward it.
The rest of the division won’t bail Dallas out. Washington fell to 2-5-1 with a 20-13 loss to the Rams, and Philadelphia has lost seven straight. PFN gives the Commanders a 3% shot at the title and the Eagles less than 1%.
Both contenders still see the bottom two: the Giants host Washington on Thursday and Philadelphia in Week 18, and Dallas gets the Eagles on Thanksgiving and visits Washington in Week 18.
Why J.J. McCarthy’s Hip Matters to the Cowboys
New York’s real exposure sits under center. Jaxson Dart suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, Jameis Winston started four games, and McCarthy, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, has started since Week 7. McCarthy hurt his hip on a Zack Baun hit early in the third quarter Sunday, left, and came back to finish 12 of 19 for 127 yards.
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The Giants won with defense and Dominic Zvada, who kicked four field goals, while the pass rush sacked Joe Milton seven times. Arvell Reese had three of those sacks plus a forced fumble. The offense averaged 3.7 yards per play, and Devin Singletary ran 21 times for 31 yards.
“It’s tough. It’s crazy town,” Giants coach John Harbaugh said after the win.
Dallas has a different problem. The Cowboys averaged 6.5 yards per play with 13 explosive plays to Indianapolis’ two, Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards. They also committed 14 penalties for 153 yards and lost two fumbles.
Christian Parker’s defense, which entered the week last in the league on third down, held the Colts to 3 of 13 on third down. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said he felt “very comfortable putting our defense out there” after the go-ahead score. Dallas gets San Francisco on Nov. 15, then Tennessee and Philadelphia before a Dec. 7 trip to Seattle.
PFN’s model projects 9.6 wins for the Giants and 7.7 for Dallas. Flipping that gap requires New York’s quarterback situation to start costing it games, and the first chance comes Thursday night against Washington.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.