Harsh new inflation reality
· Axios
America's inflation problem is stubborn, broadening out and showing no sign of letting up.
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Why it matters: October marked the third straight month of hotter-than-expected inflation, defying repeated predictions over the last couple of years that price pressures were finally about to ease.
- In this sixth consecutive year of steep price increases, consumers are finding there is nowhere to hide from inflation.
- The Iran war has added to the pain, but other factors — tariffs and the AI investment boom — have also put upward pressure on costs, complicating an affordability problem that long predates the conflict.
What they're saying: "Today's inflation report is a warning shot," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote Tuesday morning.
- "Coming just a week after the midterm elections exposed the depth of voters' concerns about affordability, the message for the Fed is uncomfortable but clear: The inflation fight is not finished," Shah wrote.
Driving the news: The headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, down slightly from a 0.6% surge the previous month.
- Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — climbed 0.3% for the third consecutive month, a sign that underlying inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent.
The Labor Department did not calculate October's annual inflation rate since last year's government shutdown prevented it from collecting price data for October 2025.
- But assuming prices that month were halfway between September and November, overall inflation over the last 12 months was 4% — up from 3.7% in September. Core inflation would have risen to 2.8%, up from 2.6%.
- Another measure similarly paints a picture of hot inflation. Core prices rose at a 3.7% annualized pace over the three months through October, the fastest pace by this gauge all year.
- It also is a sharp acceleration from the summer, when underlying inflation appeared to be cooling.
Zoom out: Gasoline prices advanced another 1% in October after surging 9.1% in September, adding to the steep increase in fuel costs since the Iran war began.
- Food prices climbed, raising concerns that higher diesel costs are rippling through to consumer prices. Grocery prices increased 0.4% after declining in September, while restaurant prices gained 0.5%.
- Shelter costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall increase in consumer prices last month.
Zoom in: Inflation is persistent in the services sector, which is largely insulated from swings in energy prices.
- The closely watched measure, which excludes housing, energy and food prices, surged 0.4% in October — pushed up by higher costs in transportation, medical care and insurance.
What to watch: A strong labor market is not providing much relief from the sharply rising cost of living.
- Inflation has now outpaced or matched wage growth for three consecutive months, leaving workers with less purchasing power.