Light at the end of the tunnel for South Africa’s drivers?
· The South African
South Africa’s motorists could be in line for welcome relief at the pumps in July, with early fuel price data indicating significant over-recoveries for both petrol and diesel despite upcoming fuel levy increases.
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According to the latest figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), fuel prices are currently tracking sizeable decreases at the start of June, raising hopes that consumers may finally catch a break after months of rising costs.
Pressure on households
The positive outlook follows four consecutive months of fuel price increases that have placed increasing pressure on households and businesses across the country.
As of 9 June, the CEF’s daily fuel price projections showed the following over-recoveries:
- Petrol 93: R2.59 per litre
- Petrol 95: R2.58 per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: R4.61 per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: R4.84 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: R5.30 per litre
An over-recovery indicates that current market conditions support lower fuel prices than those currently being charged, although official adjustments are only determined at month-end.
The recoveries have been driven by a more favourable fuel pricing environment, supported by softer international oil prices and a relatively stable rand.
Signs of improvement
Global oil markets have shown signs of improvement since late May, aided by easing geopolitical tensions and growing optimism surrounding the possibility of a longer-term truce between the United States and Iran.
The improved sentiment has helped steady crude oil prices after a prolonged period of volatility.
While both petrol and diesel ended May in positive territory, only diesel users benefited from lower prices in June after government tax adjustments offset gains in petrol prices.
Fuel levy
The fuel levy remains a key factor in determining what motorists ultimately pay at the pumps.
In June, National Treasury reinstated R1.50 per litre to petrol prices and R1.97 per litre to diesel prices as part of the phased withdrawal of temporary fuel levy relief introduced earlier this year.
A second and final phase of the levy reinstatement is scheduled for July. This will add a further R1.50 per litre to petrol and R1.96 per litre to diesel.
Despite these planned increases, current over-recoveries are large enough to absorb the additional levy costs while still leaving room for potential fuel price reductions if prevailing market conditions continue throughout the remainder of the month.
However, analysts have cautioned that it remains too early to accurately predict July’s official fuel price adjustments.
Fuel prices are influenced by several variables, most notably international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate, both of which can fluctuate significantly before the month concludes.
For now, the latest data offers a rare dose of optimism for South African motorists, with the prospect of meaningful fuel price relief becoming increasingly possible after months of sustained increases.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for July 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93decrease of 259 centsPetrol 95decrease of 258 centsDiesel 0.05%decrease of 461 centsDiesel 0.005%decrease of 484 centsIlluminating Paraffindecrease of 530 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 259 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 258 cents as well for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 461 and 484 cents per litre decrease.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 530 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $93.78 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.54/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 30 June.