Bijan Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs contract projections: Which 2023 first-round RB should get more in new deal?
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Bijan Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs contract projections: Which 2023 first-round RB should get more in new deal? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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Atlanta's Bijan Robinson (No. 8 overall) and Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall) have lived up to lofty expectations as elite running backs after being taken in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Soon, the Falcons and Lions will need to pay each young Pro Bowler a lot more than they are earning on respective rookie contracts.
Robinson and Gibbs each are signed through the 2026 season with a club option for a fifth season in 2027. Based on their draft positions, Robinson ($21.96 million) got more guaranteed money on his initial four-year deal than Gibbs ($17.845 million). Should their teams re-sign them to lucrative extensions, both backs can expect to get much more than that — per season.
Before breaking down what the second pro contracts of Robinson and Gibbs might look like, let's look at the recent history of highest-paid NFL running backs:
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Who is the NFL's highest-paid running back?
Saquon Barkley is the first running back to earn more than $20 million a season in terms of average annual value. He went from signing with the Eagles as a free agent in 2024 for three years at $37.5 million ($26 million guaranteed) to getting extended two years at $41.2 million ($36 million guaranteed) in 2025.
That gave Barkley $20.6 million per year. The previous high belonged to the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey, who signed a two-year, $38 million in 2024 to put him at $19 million a season along with $24 million guaranteed.
Behind Barkley and McCaffrey, the Dolphins' De'Von Achane became the third-highest-paid running back in the league this May with a four-year, $64 million ($16 million annual average) and $27.378 million guaranteed.
In terms of highest guaranteed money, recent first-round draft picks Jeremiyah Love ($53 million) and Ashton Jeanty ($35.895 million) sandwich Barkley at No. 1 and No. 3. James Cook also hit the $30 million guaranteed mark with the four-year, $48 million extension he signed with the Bills in August 2025.
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Bijan Robinson contract projection
Robinson is a durable All-Pro back who led the NFL with his 2,298 scrimmage yards last season. He got a respective 365 and 366 touches the past two seasons, combining for a league-high 731. He also doesn't turn 25 years old until January.
The value of Robinson to the Falcons' offense is even greater in 2026 with real questions about quarterback play between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. Should Tagovailoa start, Robinson's value as an ace outlet receiver will be sky high, as Achane earned his money in that role for that same QB in Miami last season.
Offensive-minded coach Kevin Stefanski would like to operate a run-heavier offense complemented by an accurate short-to-intermediate passing game. The Falcons also moved on from strong top backup Tyler Allgeier, replacing him with a more limited backup in Brian Robinson Jr.
Bijan Robinson is on track to become the first $25 million per season back when he gets his extension sometime next year, the fourth of his rookie contract. The Falcons have ample cap space with little invested elsewhere, led by the pittance spent on the QBs.
Atlanta knows what Robinson means and has the means to reward him to rest the market. For now, the Falcons are projected to be a whopping $100 million-plus under the cap in 2027. Robinson should look to get something like a three-year $75 million deal with near $45 million in guarantees.
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Jahmyr Gibbs contract projection
Gibbs has great value to the Lions that's also increasing as he's been dubbed the clear workhorse back by coach Dan Campbell, with David Montgomery being traded to the Texans in the offseason. Gibbs has seen his touches increase from 234 as a rookie to 302 in Year 2 to 320 last season. Only McCaffrey hit 400-plus touches last season, but there's a good chance Gibbs pushes toward 370 touches like Robinson has done the past two seasons.
Gibbs' explosive three-down work, including his league-high 20 total TDs in 2024 and 77 receptions for 616 yards in 2025, is what made the Lions confident to expand his workload. The Lions are in a tighter cap situation than the Falcons now and are set to increase to around $50 million available in 2027.
In Gibbs' case, he should look for an Achane-like deal in terms of four or more years. He also would be in line to make $25 million-plus a year (four years, $100 million). He can then push for $50 million in guarantees as he spreads out his deal through more seasons. The Lions need a team-friendlier deal over the long term, while the Falcons can afford to give Robinson the same lucrative annual salary and set him up for a third extension earlier.
Should Gibbs have a healthy, productive career season to match Robinson's production with significant high volume, he will be positioned to match or exceed Robinson's upcoming contract per season.
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